First Quantum Lowers Production Guidance LME Copper Fell Sharply Last Friday [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, January 19, 2026
Futures: On Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,921/mt, initially rose to a high of $12,973/mt, then the price center moved downward, showing a "W" pattern, touched a low of $12,696/mt before a slight rise, and finally closed at $12,822.5/mt, down 2.48%. Trading volume reached 33,000 lots, and open interest reached 324,000 lots, an increase of 2,103 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reduction. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 103,030 yuan/mt, initially touched a high of 103,500 yuan/mt, then the price center moved down to touch a low of 99,620 yuan/mt, subsequently fluctuated rangebound, and finally closed at 100,280 yuan/mt, down 1.56%. Trading volume reached 140,000 lots, and open interest reached 219,000 lots, a decrease of 7,180 lots from the previous trading day, also mainly showing long position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On January 16, First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced preliminary 2025 production data and 2026-2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. The company's 2025 copper production was approximately 396,000 mt, within the revised guidance range, with the Kansanshi S3 expansion project achieving commercial production by year-end; gold production was approximately 152,000 ounces, exceeding the upper end of guidance, and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. Looking ahead, the company slightly lowered its 2026-2027 copper and gold production guidance, mainly reflecting higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi, while nickel production guidance remained unchanged. Unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previous expectations, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised, mainly due to some investments originally planned for 2025 being postponed to 2026. Meanwhile, the company mentioned that the Panamanian government agreed to process the Cobre Panamá ore inventory, bringing positive signals for the project's subsequent progress.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of January 16, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed an inverted V-shaped pattern, retreating after a rapid rise and closing lower. It opened at 102,390 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 103,170 yuan/mt, then fell to 101,500 yuan/mt and stabilized, closing at 101,330 yuan/mt. The contango spread between front-month contracts was between 200 yuan/mt and 300 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 940 yuan/mt and 1,040 yuan/mt. For the coming week, with copper prices high, downstream buyers are expected to buy the dip. The overall market structure is unlikely to change significantly. Next week, warrant outflows from delivery are expected to further pressure spot premiums/discounts, which are expected to maintain the current structure.
(2) Guangdong: On January 16, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 150-80 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 115 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 240-200 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 220 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,325 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, after the contract rollover, spot prices returned to a large discount, but are expected to fluctuate higher this week.
(3) Imported copper: On January 16, warrant prices were $24-40/mt, QP January, with the average price down $6/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $28-44/mt, QP February, with the average price down $5/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$10/mt to $4/mt, QP February, with the average price down $7/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 16, the futures closing price was 101,690 yuan/mt, up 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums/discounts were -125 yuan/mt, down 325 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap raw material fell 400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 89,400-89,600 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,391 yuan/mt, up 132 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,070 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, traders of imported copper scrap indicated that current inventory is tight and mainly consists of copper anode material. Due to the SHFE/LME spread, many copper scrap traders are reluctant to purchase excessive amounts of bare bright copper wire.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump's statement indicating he intends to keep Hassett in his current position cooled market expectations for loose monetary policy, and the US dollar index closed higher, negatively impacting copper prices. Additionally, after traders took profits, combined with increased concerns about demand prospects amid high copper prices, further pressured copper prices. On the fundamentals side, spot market supply of copper cathode showed structural divergence, with tight availability of high-quality copper. Demand side, as copper prices retreated, downstream purchasing sentiment recovered slightly, but overall improvement remained limited. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue their downward trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]